Pep Guardiola will wait until the end of the season before deciding whether he will stay at Manchester City.
The City manager has one more year left on his contract after this campaign and is yet to make up his mind on whether he will see it out.
There has been speculation all season over Guardiola’s future but he has genuinely not decided whether he will remain at City or leave the club.
It has been claimed that City had formally asked Guardiola whether he plans to see out his contract, but this is not the case. Instead, Guardiola wants to analyse in May where City are under him, how he feels, and then decide.
They remain in the Premier League title race, attempting to catch Arsenal, are in the quarter-finals of the FA Cup – where they face Liverpool at the Etihad Stadium on Saturday – and have won the Carabao Cup last month, beating Mikel Arteta’s side in the final before the international break.
It was claimed that Guardiola might use that pause in the club season to decide his future and that felt logical. But it is understood he wants to delay any decision until the end of next month.
The FA Cup final is on May 16 and the Premier League season finishes on May 24, with City at home to Aston Villa. City, nine points behind Arsenal with a game in hand and a home fixture against Arteta’s side in two weeks, will hope to still be fighting for the title by then.
City accepts that the 55-year-old will inform them of what he wants to do in his own time and do not want to put pressure on him. They will certainly not try to force the issue and have a very strong relationship with Guardiola built on mutual trust.
However, the uncertainty over Guardiola’s future, after a decade at City, does make it more complicated for the club to plan, in what could be a busy summer of managerial movement.
Inevitably, they are drawing up contingency plans in case Guardiola does leave, with a shortlist of candidates that includes former Chelsea head coach Enzo Maresca – who was Guardiola’s assistant at City – Xabi Alonso, who left Real Madrid at the end of last year and played under Guardiola at Bayern Munich and former City captain Vincent Kompany who is the Bayern Munich head coach.
That process is overseen by Hugo Viana, City’s director of football, who is also leading the club’s transfer strategy. For example, captain Bernardo Silva is expected to leave when his contract runs out this summer, and are working on various contingencies. It could be an extremely busy off-season at City, with the World Cup also to be factored in.
Viana was appointed last year after the departure of Txiki Begiristain, who is very close to Guardiola and helped persuade him to join City. Guardiola has privately joked that Begiristain going at that time meant that he had a duty to stay for longer at City.
City have always accepted that Guardiola has earned the right to decide his own future in his own time. Guardiola has told them that there is still a long way to go, and much to decide, before the end of the season and he wants to focus fully on his job.
However, the longer Guardiola leaves it until confirming whether or not he will stay, and see out his deal or even sign a new one, the more he will add to the sense within football that he is likely to leave – one that has been there for the majority of this season.
City point to the fact that Guardiola, who joined in 2016 and is approaching a decade in charge, is contracted until June 2027.
Much has been made of Guardiola never having broken a contract during his career – at Barcelona or Bayern – he effectively has a gentleman’s agreement with City that he can leave whenever he wants to. They will not try and hold him to the remainder of his contract.
When Guardiola does leave he is likely to take a sabbatical from football before a job in international management and he would consider England – eventually – among the countries he would like to manage.
He has also always had a fascination with Brazil and is not expected to manage another club side after City. Guardiola will certainly not take another Premier League job.
Guardiola uncertainty will not impact summer transfers
The sight of Pep Guardiola bounding around the pitch, celebrating wildly after Manchester City beat Arsenal to win the Carabao Cup, can be taken two ways.
It did not look like the 55-year-old was on his way out at City and he appeared fully energised and enthusiastic about continuing to manage the club and take on the task of also toppling Arsenal and trying to regain the Premier League title.
Or was it just relief that if this were to be his final campaign, then it would not end without another trophy? It will have hurt Guardiola deeply, if he were to go and, despite all he has achieved, finish his last two campaigns with no silverware.
Similarly, there are two ways to read how Guardiola talked about the new players City have bought and the new team that is emerging as he did so in the wake of the disappointing Champions League last-16 exit at the hands of Real Madrid.
Guardiola spoke enthusiastically about how this team will be better next season, and this was interpreted, in some quarters, as a clear sign that he intends to stay and will not be leaving this summer.
But it could also be interpreted as Guardiola stating his belief that if he does go, he will be leaving the squad in decent, competitive shape for his successor.
What this all shows is what the situation is: no one really knows what Guardiola’s intentions are. Why is that? Because the truth is, he has not decided. It appears to be a day-by-day thing. But the fact is that he has not decided, and the longer this goes on strengthens the belief that this might be it.
Certainly within football circles it is being discussed and has been all season. But even after signing new contracts, Guardiola has always reviewed his position at the end of each campaign and will do so again next month. This is done in the knowledge that City will respect his intentions, even if he had, say, five years left on his contract and not just 12 more months.
Guardiola has earned the right to leave on his terms
There is no disputing he has earned that right and, besides, there is no point trying to persuade a manager and a character as intense as Guardiola to stay if he wants to go and he does not have the energy.
There is no doubt that being in charge of a club with the scale, the scrutiny and the ambition of City takes its toll. And there are times when Guardiola does appear worn out by it all. He certainly did not intend to stay at City – or any club – for 10 years and has even surprised himself that he has done so. And that is a testament to City.
He has talked about taking a break, about how this will be his last club job and how, romantically, he harbours the ambition of taking a nation like Brazil or even England to a World Cup or another major tournament. The iconic yellow Brazil shirt, in particular, means much to him, while he has grown to love England. The Catalan is highly unlikely to ever want to coach Spain.
What does this all mean for City? They desperately want him to stay. They would love nothing more than for him to walk into the club today and say ‘let’s sign a new deal’.
That remains the case although – maybe – part of Guardiola’s thinking is to add a bit of jeopardy by delaying and creating that uncertainty and seeing how the players, in particular, react in a campaign where there is still so much to play for.
After all, Sir Alex Ferguson deeply regretted announcing his planned departure from Manchester United in 2001, a year ahead of time. The drop-off from the team wrecked United’s season and the notion of the long goodbye never really works in sport.
Similarly, when it was announced that Guardiola had signed a new two-year contract in November 2024, during that difficult season, it did not lead to the expected uplift and City struggled.
Guardiola’s decision will impact managerial and player targets
It puts City in a difficult position to wait until the end of the season before deciding. But they are making their contingency plans with director of football, Hugo Viana, charged with the shortlist of managerial targets and having those conversations.
The danger is, of course, whether a manager waits to see whether Guardiola goes and risks losing the chance to take over at another club? But opportunities like City, if that comes up, are few and far between and there will be no shortage of outstanding candidates as Viana will already have ascertained. Even if this is an incredibly hard act to follow. If it comes to that.
The other issue that has been flagged is whether it might affect potential transfer targets. The answer, after speaking to agents, is an emphatic ‘no’. Yes, players prefer the certainty of knowing they will be coached by Guardiola – and him being at City has been a factor in players joining – but this is City and a big Champions League club.
There were suggestions that not knowing for sure whether Guardiola would be there next season might influence Antoine Semenyo when he was deciding who to join from Bournemouth in the January transfer window. But that was wishful thinking from the likes of United.
Nottingham Forest’s Elliot Anderson, who is also wanted by both Manchester clubs, will probably have a similar decision to make and it remains to be seen how much weight he places on the Guardiola factor and how much of a part the manager plays in the pitch to sign the midfielder.
By delaying, Guardiola knows he will also continue to face questions over his future, starting with Friday’s press conference ahead of the FA Cup quarter-final against Liverpool, which is a crucial tie for both managers.
Guardiola is skilled and experienced to deal with those inquiries – just as he laughed it off, following the Madrid tie by saying the media wanted him to go. But that uncertainty may also add a bit of edge from now until the end of the season, with much still to play for. Or Guardiola just wants to wait to see how he feels.